NBA research in the ET Parlays Lab
ET Parlays researches NBA player props: what a player has done against tonight’s line, the defense he plays next, his minutes, the pace of the game, and the books’ own chance at every line they posted. It is a research tool, not a sportsbook. It never takes a bet and holds no money. NBA research is included with ET Plus.
This page is the whole inventory: what the NBA product does, where the numbers come from, and what we will not claim yet. The NBA season opened on October 20, and so did our NBA record.
What ET does for the NBA
Eleven surfaces. Each one answers a question you would otherwise answer by opening five tabs.
Slate
PlusWhich games are on tonight, what the books post for each one, and who is starting?
Player
PlusWhat has this player done lately, how often has he cleared tonight’s line, and which book has the best price?
Matchup
PlusWhat does the defense he plays next allow to starters at his position, beside his own averages?
Rotation
PlusAre his minutes growing, steady or shrinking, and is the change bigger than his own game-to-game swing?
Recon
PlusFor one game, how often has each player reached every posted line, and what chance do the books give it?
Defense
PlusWhich defenses give up the most to guards, forwards and centers, against the league average?
Pace
PlusHow many possessions should tonight’s game produce, and what is the book’s total beside it?
Edge board
PlusWhere are our highest projections in each stat, beside the book’s line? A gap is a question to research, not an edge.
Team Lab
PlusHow does each team do straight up, home and away, on a back-to-back or long rest, after a win and after a loss?
Models
PlusHow has the NBA record gone so far, stat by stat, with the typical miss either way?
Slip Check
FreeWhat chance do the books give each NBA leg on your slip, at its exact line, before you place it?
Which NBA props it covers
Two kinds of number, and they are kept apart on purpose. Our own projection, written down before tip-off and graded after the final, covers four props:
- Points
- Rebounds
- Assists
- Threes made
Recon and Slip Check also price this one, using the books’ chance at the line rather than ours:
- Points plus rebounds plus assists
The books’ chance is their price with their cut taken out, wherever both sides of the line are posted. We show it because our NBA projections do not have a graded record yet, and theirs is the number your bet actually pays against.
ET does not project steals, blocks or turnovers. It does not grade NBA spreads, moneylines or totals either. Team Lab shows straight-up records, scoring and pace, but no record against the spread, because we do not store closing game lines for the NBA.
What one player card actually holds
Eleven surfaces is a list. The Player card is where most of the work sits, so here it is panel by panel.
Points, rebounds, assists, threes, steals, blocks, turnovers and minutes, each with a short line saying what it counts. Rebounds says offensive plus defensive. Minutes says per game.
Usage rate, true shooting, effective field-goal percentage, pace and share of the team’s shots, each with its definition on the tile. Usage is the share of the team’s plays that end with him. Pace is possessions per 48 minutes, against a league average near 99.
Choose points, rebounds, assists, threes or the combos, set the line yourself, pick over or under, and every game in the window is lit or greyed by whether it cleared your number. Windows run last 5, last 10, last 20, the season, head-to-head against tonight’s opponent, and last season.
What tonight’s opponent allows to starters at his position, per game, against the league average for that position.
For each stat, every line the books posted for him, with his last-ten average and our projection beside them. Pick a line, pick over or under, and add it to your slip yourself.
Game by game, newest first, so you can check any average on the card against the games that produced it.
None of it tells you what to bet. It is laid out so you can disagree with a number and see why.
Every reference tab says when not to lean on it
Matchup, Rotation, Defense and Pace compare a player or a team to a baseline. The part worth reading is the line each one carries about how far it can be pushed.
Minutes per game over the last 5, the last 10 and the season, with his starts. A player is called expanding or declining only when his last two games sit on the same side of his season average. The gap also has to clear 4 minutes or one and a half times his own game-to-game swing, whichever is larger. One game past the bar is a blip.
What starters at each position average against every defense, beside the league average for that position. A defense that gives up points to centers nudges the number for a player who starts at center. It does not make the bet.
Possessions per game and points per 100 possessions for every team. More possessions mean more shots, rebounds and assists for everyone on the floor, which is why it sits next to a prop and not in place of one.
His last ten and season averages beside what tonight’s defense allows at his position, with both teams’ pace under it. It deliberately stops there. There is no read and no lean on the tab.
Early in the season every one of these says whose numbers it is using. Until a player has played, last season’s final ten games stand in, and the tab labels them as last season rather than passing them off as this one.
Where the numbers come from
Two different questions, and we answer them differently on purpose.
For grading, we are specific. A pick is settled against the player’s final box score once the game is final, never against our own estimate of what happened. A player who does not play is voided rather than counted as a miss, so a late scratch cannot quietly make the record look worse or better.
For producing a projection, we are not. The models run on public league data and a commercial odds feed. We do not itemise them, because naming the ingredients is most of the recipe. You can audit our outputs, not our method.
Underneath sit 96,633 player games from the 2023-24 season on, regular season and playoffs, which is what the averages, splits, defense tables and rotation calls are computed from.
The record, and what it is a record of
Every slate, the 25 players with our highest projection in each of the four stats above go on the record. A pick is frozen once the book’s line is captured beside it in the afternoon, or once its game tips, whichever comes first. After that it cannot be edited. Here is the record so far, read live from that table, which covers October 20, 2026.
One thing to know before you read any NBA rate from us, here or in the app. Today a pick is graded on whether the player went over a line set at our own projection, not the book’s line. A projection that is exactly right in the middle still lands under half the time on that test. So that rate is not a win rate, and it does not compare to the 50% you would expect from a coin or to the book’s chance. Grading against the book’s line is the next step, and the captured lines above are what it will use.
Nothing is graded yet, so there is no NBA accuracy figure on this page. There is not supposed to be one. Until enough picks are graded to say something that is not noise, the only honest number is the one above: zero.
What we will not claim
Four things, stated plainly so you can hold us to them:
- We have no NBA accuracy figure. The record started on opening night. Anyone quoting one for us made it up.
- We do not claim to beat the closing line. We have started capturing the book’s line on every pick in the afternoon and again before tip. There is no result from that yet, so there is no claim.
- We have no NBA game-line record. No spread, moneyline or total is graded for the NBA.
- We do not sell picks. You choose every leg, and you place every bet somewhere else.
Common questions
Does ET Parlays cover the NBA?
Yes. The NBA is included with ET Plus, opened once as a beta you accept in the app. Eleven NBA surfaces cover the player, the defense he plays next, his minutes, pace, every line the books posted, and team records. ET projects four player props: points, rebounds, assists and threes made.
Is ET Parlays a sportsbook?
No. ET never accepts a wager, holds no money, and takes no commission on a bet. It is a research tool. You place your own bets wherever you already bet.
Where do the NBA numbers come from?
The models run on public league data and a commercial odds feed. We do not itemise the sources, because naming the ingredients is most of the recipe. Grading is the opposite: a pick is settled against the player’s final box score once the game is final. A player who does not play is voided, not counted as a miss.
How accurate are the NBA projections?
We have not published an NBA accuracy figure. The record started on opening night of the 2026-27 season. Every pick is written down before tip-off and graded after the final, and the graded count is on this page. A figure goes up once enough picks are graded to mean something, including the parts that do not flatter us.
Does ET Parlays tell me what to bet?
No. ET shows research and the books’ own prices. It does not tell you what to stake, and you choose every leg.
Try it before you pay for it
The slip checker is free, needs no account, and reads NBA legs: the books’ chance at each leg’s exact line, then what the slip pays beside what the legs add up to. If you want the NBA surfaces above, ET Plus covers them, along with the MLB and NFL Labs.
Nothing here is betting advice, and no research changes the fact that these are negative-expectation wagers. Bet only what you can afford to lose. If it stops being fun, take a break.