Tonight’s reads, and the parlays built from them.
Today is where each day’s research starts. Edge ranks every market on the board, with ET’s chance next to the book’s and the reasons behind every read. Parlays builds candidate slips from those reads and shows the math on every card: the chance, the price, and whether that price is worth it. Everything is written down before the game and graded after.
Edge: what a read shows you
- ET’s chance next to the book’s. The book’s price says how likely it thinks a prop is. ET’s number sits beside it, so you can see where they agree and where they don’t.
- The reasons. Tap ▼ and the read opens: what is driving the number, in plain words, and the player’s numbers behind it.
- How reads like it have landed. In MLB the read says how often ET’s reads at that chance have landed. In the NBA it says how often leans like it have landed.
- A way into the Lab. “Full Lab” opens the player’s whole card, and + adds the read to your slip.
Parlays: the math on every card
- The slip’s chance and its price. Every card shows how often ET thinks the whole slip lands, with a price beside it: the book’s in MLB and soccer, and a fair price worked out from the legs in the NFL and NBA.
- Whether the price is worth it. In MLB the card works out what chance the book’s price needs and sets ET’s number beside it. When a slip falls short, it says the payout is the draw, not the math.
- Legs that move together, measured. In the NFL, when a quarterback and his receiver tend to cash together, the chance is adjusted by how much, measured on past seasons, and the card is tagged. When two legs fight each other, it warns you.
- A reason on every leg. In MLB, the NFL and soccer, tap a leg and it says what that leg has to hit to break even, where ET has it, and why.
- Long shots, labeled. The lotto lanes say plainly that most nights they lose. They’re there because people want them, priced honestly.
- You build the slip. “Add to builder” puts the legs in the Builder, where you drop or reorder any of them before you play anything.
The parlay math nobody prints
Parlays open with the part the payout screen leaves out. On legs from different games, the book keeps about 5% a leg, and that compounds: about 10% on two legs and nearly 19% on four. The bar each leg has to clear never moves. A -110 leg needs 52.4% whether it’s alone or one of ten. What changes is how much of your stake the book keeps. Same-game parlays are repriced by the book as a package, and its cut on those runs higher.
Next to that, a panel shows what each market costs tonight, the book’s cut market by market. And for pick’em apps, what each entry needs per pick:
| A sportsbook straight bet at -110 | needs 52.4% |
| PrizePicks 2-Pick Power (3×) | needs 57.7% |
| 3-Pick (6×) | needs 55.0% |
| 4-Pick (10×) | needs 56.2% |
| Underdog 5-Pick (20×) | needs 54.9% |
Every pick’em entry needs more per pick than a plain -110 bet. The payout screen shows the multiplier, never this number.
Written down before, graded after
A list that changes after the game proves nothing. So each sport’s board is fixed before play starts, and every read on it is graded once the game is final, misses included. The scorecard at the top of Today shows how the last days landed. The last slate is already graded. Check it before you trust today’s.
Every sport: Edge and Parlays
NFL Today
ET PlusThis week’s board, honest about what is on it, and eight parlay lanes built from it, plus a same-game builder. A lane that uses a market held off the Edge board is tagged on the card.
- Each row: ET’s projection, its chance at the line, and the book’s price. Tap ▼ for one plain sentence on why, the projection against the line, and ET’s chance at every nearby line.
- Rushing, receiving and receptions are off the board: through four weeks, ET’s number on them did no better than the books’ own price. Touchdowns too, while a repaired number is checked. The board says so in one line, with the full reason a tap away.
- The same models run at PrizePicks and Underdog lines, ranked by how far the lean clears what each pick has to hit.
- The board snapshots to the public record before each kickoff window and is graded on Tuesday.
- Pick a game, tick the props you like, and see the combo’s chance, adjusted for how those legs move together where that has been measured.
- It shows the fair price if the legs were independent, and says the book will price its same-game parlay shorter than that.
NBA and WNBA Today
NBA on ET Plus, WNBA on ET ProTonight’s highest projections in four stats, a nightly scorecard, and six parlay lanes (five in the WNBA).
- Ranked by ET’s projection. Each row: the matchup, what is driving it, the projection, ET’s lean over or under the line, and the book’s price with the book named.
- Tap ▼ for the read: the chance the price implies, how often leans like this one have landed, the chance at every nearby line, and the last 5, last 10 and season.
- A scorecard of the last slates: how often players cleared ET’s projected number. About half is the target, and the page says why.
- A date picker opens any night’s board. Picks freeze once the book’s line is captured, from 2 PM Eastern, or at tip.
MLB Today
ET PlusFive markets every day of the season plus fantasy, and eight parlay lanes. In the postseason the slate is short and graded on its own, outside the season record.
- Home runs, hits, total bases, hits plus runs plus RBIs, and strikeouts: top 10 each, 25 when you expand it. Home run rows add the park and the wind.
- Tap ▼ for “The Read”: what is driving the number, and how often ET’s reads at that chance have landed, once there are 30 graded to say it.
- Either HR by game, fantasy rankings for hitters and starters, a game filter, and Compare, which puts two players side by side.
- The Scorecard: each market’s hits, what ET said, and the book’s break-even over the last 14 days. The top 10 locks in the morning and is graded that night.
Soccer Today
ET ProFour markets each matchweek and four parlay lanes, for the Premier League, La Liga and the Champions League.
- Top 10 each, 25 expanded. Each row: per-90 numbers, the last five, expected minutes, kickoff, how much the opponent allows, ET’s chance and its fair price.
- The top 10 locks an hour before the first kickoff.
Tennis Today
ET ProTop reads from the men’s and women’s draws while a tournament is on, and three parlay lanes. Between tournaments the tab says so and names the next event.
- Top Reads for the men’s and women’s draws, from serve and return form on the surface, hold rate, and the model’s win chance. The book’s long shots are filtered out, and only reads of 60% or more make the list.
- Each row: the win chance, the price at the best book, hold and break rates, and recent form. Tap ▼ for the read, with ET’s number beside what the book’s price implies.
- A scorecard of every Top Read as it was served, wins and losses both.
The receipts, live
A read that says 60% loses four times in ten when it’s exactly right. So the record shows what we said, how many times we said it, and how often it landed.
1,278 MLB player prop reads graded between September 10, 2026 and September 27, 2026, each written down before first pitch, read from the database when this page loads. Misses included.
| Market | Reads | ET said | Landed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home runs | 329 | 18% | 18% |
| Total bases | 345 | 39% | 39% |
| One or more hits | 285 | 63% | 61% |
| Hits plus runs plus RBIs | 319 | 49% | 48% |
“ET said” is the average chance ET showed on those reads. A market lines up when the two columns are close.
And the part that doesn’t flatter us: the widest gap was on home runs. Before September 10, 2026, when the model said 50 to 60%, those reads hit 26%. On September 10 we cut the home run numbers the board shows. Since then, 329 home run reads said 18% on average, and 18% landed. That’s two and a half weeks of games, so it’s a start, not proof.
Written before kickoff, weeks 1 through 6.
The NFL record, market by market →The NBA record is new this season, so there isn’t much of it yet.
The NBA record →How we grade, and where our numbers said more than landed: the methodology page.
What Today won’t do
- Place a bet or tell you what to stake. It shows the reads, the slips and the math. You decide what to play.
- Promise a read hits. A 70% chance misses three times in ten, and those misses aren’t bad luck.
- Hide a bad price. A slip that falls short of its own break-even says so on the card.
- Rank a market ET hasn’t earned. NFL rushing, receiving, receptions and touchdowns are off the Edge board until a graded week says otherwise.
What it costs
ET Plus, $19.99 a month or $199 a year: Today for MLB, NFL and NBA, Edge and Parlays, plus the Player Lab behind every read. ET Pro, $49.99 a month: adds WNBA, soccer and tennis, and Slip Shop, which shows what your slip pays at each book. Already have a slip? Slip Check reads it leg by leg, free, no account.
Questions
What is the Today tab?
Where tonight’s research starts. It has two faces. Edge ranks every market on the board by ET’s model, with ET’s chance beside the book’s and the reasons behind each read. Parlays builds candidate slips from those reads, with the chance, the price and the break-even math on every card.
Does ET build parlays for you?
It suggests candidate slips built from tonight’s reads, each with its chance, its price, and a reason for every leg. You add a slip to the Builder, where you edit or drop any leg before you play it. ET never places a bet or tells you what to stake.
How much does the book take on a parlay?
On legs from different games, about 5% a leg, and it compounds: about 10% on two legs and nearly 19% on four. The bar each leg has to clear never moves: a -110 leg needs 52.4% whether it’s alone or one of ten. Same-game parlays are repriced by the book, and its cut on those runs higher.
Why are some NFL markets off the board?
Because ET’s number on them hasn’t earned it. Through four weeks, ET did no better than the books’ own price on rushing, receiving and receptions, and its anytime touchdown number ran high. Those stay off the Edge board until a graded week shows otherwise. Passing yards is on it.
When are the reads written down?
Before the game. MLB’s top 10 locks in the morning. NBA picks freeze once the book’s line is captured, from 2 PM Eastern, or at tip. The NFL board snapshots before each kickoff window. Everything is graded after, misses included.
Which sports are on Today?
MLB, NFL and NBA on ET Plus, $19.99 a month. WNBA, soccer and tennis on ET Pro, $49.99 a month. NHL is being built and isn’t open yet.